Heading into 2023, suppliers were concerned that the hardwood flooring segment would continue to face intense pressure from competing categories such as resilient and laminate—products that increasingly mimic the visual characteristics of real wood but excel in areas such as waterproof performance and dent/scratch resistance. What industry executives weren’t expecting, however, was to see double-digit declines in both sales and volume.
While the outlook for the hardwood flooring category in 2024 is certainly not as dire (many manufacturing executives are forecasting a modest/flat performance next year), there remain headwinds that will surely impact the segment’s overall performance next year.
Brian Carson
president and CEO, AHF Products
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
We’re projecting the wood flooring segment will be flat, maybe up 1%.
We expect to see an improving trend in the back half of the year, probably sometime in Q3, Q4.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
Internally, I think we’ve got some wonderful products for wood coming out of both our Cambodia facility and out of the American facilities that are new to the industry. These represent additional values that we’re going to be able to bring to the market—you’ll see them at Surfaces.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
We’re expecting to grow at a higher rate than the overall wood market; that’s what we get paid to do. So, if the overall market is going to be flat, we’re going to be better than that—probably mid-single digits.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
This year we invested around $30 million into our North American wood factories to boost our sawn- and sliced-faced products. This allowed us to increase capacities in certain areas and bring new capabilities and new efficiencies.
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
Interest rates—the market is not going to be our friend next year. But it’s important to remember that everything is cyclical. The rates will eventually come down. They might not fall to 3% but they won’t be 8%, either.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
I’m an optimist but I’m also a realist, and that’s why we’re making the investments and the plans because we want to be there with the right products, at the right values and with the right styles when the market comes back. We’re optimistic for the long-term prospects of wood.
John Hammel
senior product director, wood and laminate, Mannington
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
We expect the hardwood category to be down high single digits in 2024.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
Higher value products such as sliced and sawn-face veneer engineered wood will decline less than lower price point rotary-peeled products.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
We project to outgrow the market as we reap the benefits of 2023 launches and round out our product line with new products in 2024.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
In addition to launching new European white oak styles, Momentum and Chateau, we’ve streamlined our West Coast offering. We’ve brought to light more of what makes Mannington wood unique. For example, our truly hand-crafted products made by artisans in Guatemala.
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
The most obvious X factor is the 2024 election. That, coupled with interest rates and enduring inflation, will be the biggest drivers impacting consumer purchasing. Something else to watch is the impact of geopolitical events on supply and inflation.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
We see a flicker of opportunity coming from the remodel segment. We also continue to see opportunity in specialty retail and small/medium-sized builders, specifically at the premium end of the market.
Kyle McAllister
director of hardwood, Shaw Floors
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
I’m going into the new year with a mindset that it’s going to be a dogfight. The hardwood category, industry-wide, will more than likely be flat or slightly down in 2024.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
The upper end. Regardless of how the market performs, we believe you’re going to continue to see upscale customers who are still willing to buy wood flooring—and that’s always been the case.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
I’m a very optimistic person, but I can’t ignore the macroeconomic headwinds we’re going to face in 2024. We have a significant share of the wood business, and we have great relationships with our dealers. I don’t think we’re going to underperform in the category; I think we’ll be right in line with it.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
This year we’ve really focused on training. In fact, we just launched a very robust training program with our sales reps. On the product development side, we made investments to make sure we have the right products in place.
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
What I’m hearing anecdotally, and there’s also data to support it, is people are definitely more focused on reduction in carbon footprint, sustainable products, things of that nature. And they want realism. That bodes well for genuine hardwood.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
For us, the opportunities lie in educating the consumers and getting them re-engaged with wood. Then it comes down to building a portfolio that is appealing to them aesthetically.
David Moore
senior product director, Mohawk
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
I don’t see a massive change from 2023, but I certainly don’t see a massive recovery, either. I think wood will be down low-single digits.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
From a channel perspective, it’s going to be the residential remodel channel. From a product perspective, it’s high-styled visuals but on more economical platforms to try to capture a section of the consumer base that perhaps doesn’t have the budget for a super high-end styled engineered wood.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
Looking at our overarching engineered wood business, I don’t see us performing dramatically different than the market. I think we’re going to be right in line.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
We were able to overcome almost all of the supply chain and raw material challenges of ‘22 and ‘21—which improved our service rates and inventory levels. Last year we also had the extremely successful launch of a product called Camden Isle, which featured some higher-end, sliced-face veneers but on a platform that was a little more economical.
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
The biggest issue is wood continuing to get replaced by other products that offer similar visual characteristics as well as performance characteristics that maybe where wood struggles to compete from a durability, waterproof perspective.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
Reminding RSAs and consumers that wood is the most aspirational flooring product available. We plan to leverage our product portfolio and pricing structure to support the retail sales associates.
Dan Natkin
CCO, Bauwerk/Boen
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
We are at the forefront of seeing a return to wood from other categories. I think 2024 will be tough. High interest rates and high home prices will continue to leave people out of the market. At best, it will be a flat year.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
New home construction will continue to help fuel growth, offset by slow remodel demand. There is still a growing demand for houses—just not enough inventory.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
We plan for growth well beyond the market next year through new distributor partnerships, territory expansion and new products.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
- Began the integration process between Boen and Somerset
- Launched several new meaningful products in the market in both brands
- Formed new distributor partnerships, including Midwest, Pac Mat and Cartwright
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
Interest rates—if they continue to fall and get below 6% we will see a surge in demand. If they remain high and consumer confidence remains low, it will be a tough year. Also, the presidential election.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
The opportunities lie in re-educating people on the benefits of wood flooring vs. the imitations. It is the only product that is proven to add value to the home, to be better environmentally and to have the lowest carbon footprint.
Wade Bondrowski
director of sales, USA, Mercier Wood Flooring
What is your projection for the growth of the category next year?
We think we’ll have modest growth—probably in the single-digit range—but we still see a lot of headwinds.
What segments and/or products will fuel growth in 2024?
For us it’s definitely still going to be wide-width products. We’re taking a deeper dive into the wide-width white oak segment—much deeper than we have in the past.
What are the growth projections for your company in particular?
We have set goals to go after the market aggressively and participate in areas that we have not been in the past. But I wouldn’t put a percentage on it.
Cite a few of your major initiatives achieved in 2023.
We continued to invest in labor at our plants as well as automation with new equipment. The new machinery allows us to move people into other areas where we need more help, offsetting any limitations on the human labor side.
Identify the “X” factor that will impact business in general in 2024?
The true X factor for us is the housing market with interest rates, plus the foreign conflicts going on and the presidential election. Those are the greatest headwinds facing us.
Where do you see the greatest opportunities?
We’ve always focused on higher, bigger-ticket items. Moving forward we’re going to target more of that entry-level/commodity business, which is a different model than what Canadian suppliers embraced in the past.
